The big number everyone is talking about right now is 196. That's the total homicides Baltimore City had in 2011. What's impressive about this number is that it's the first time we've seen the total below 200 since 1978, and it's the fewest total since 1977. Since 2007 we've seen significant drops in not only homicides, but also gun violence in general. Often, the argument is made that the good hospitals are to credit for drops in the total homicide count...but that doesn't seem to hold true. If the reduction in gun crime is going down faster than the reduction in murders, I would think that's a clear indication that hospitals aren't the leading cause of any drop in the rate.
Another point that should be made is that at least 7 of these 196 homicides are from previous years, such as a man that was shot in 1992 and just died this year. If we were to credit these previous years with the homicides, we would probably see significant drops in the last 7 years, and rises in the early, mid, and late 1990s.
To put this all in perspective (and to really understand why we can view this as good news), the all-time high homicide count is 353 in 1993. Here's a good infographic for homicides by year.
Are 200 murders per year acceptable? No. Should we do everything in our power to bring that number to 0? Yes. Should we view this milestone as progress? Absolutely. Who should get credit? While everyone would like to take credit for progress in stopping crime in Baltimore, I feel that we should primarily thank Baltimore Police Commissioner Bealefeld (pictured above). Since taking over in 2007, we've seen the most progress in stopping violent crime in the city. Alongside Bealefeld, we should thank the police and neighbors who have worked together to take back their neighborhoods. Target for 2012? I'd say we attempt to keep homicides below 175.
